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'Terror Seeks to Change'
Analyses and questions of a former American expert for national security
By Dr Joseph D. Douglass jr., Washington D.C.
The attack was very professional; particularly the fact that planning began at least 2 years ago and implementation (pilot training) began over a year ago. Yet during this long time there was excellent communications discipline; that is, no one seems to have talked, which is most unusual without experienced supervision and training.
There were 4 or 5 terrorists per plane, of which probably 2 were trained pilots. The pilots received their training in various commercial pilot schools in Florida and possibly elsewhere. The skill with which they flew the planes suggests they may also have had some flight time, at least in smaller planes and possibly even in large planes. There was ample time for this to have taken place.
Precise planning with inside help?
Given the nature of the training, they probably operated in pairs with covert supervision to maintain security. Selection of flights was also done with care. Because of a relative lack of experience, they had to wait for clear weather, which means no more than 48 hours advanced notice. My guess is that the pilots and their support personnel were not aware of what their targets would be until the last minute for security reasons.
The planes were also carefully selected medium to large size but with similar flight controls. Full fuel loads, which means they were not merely out to crash a plane in a building but maximize the damage. The planes were all relatively empty how often do you find four empty planes all flying intercontinental on the same day and at the preferred times nowadays? Not very often. They likely had inside help to identify the planes and the number of passengers in advance and then bought the tickets at the last minute business or first class. Were the reservations rigged? Well never know.
A great deal will remain unknown
Thus, we have dedicated people, ready to commit suicide, selected over a year in advance, plenty of time to think things over, which means close supervision and observation and brain washing for over a year. No one knew what the plan was, only that they would be called to sacrifice their lives, until the last minute. There was expert help on reservations to get the right planes at the right time when the weather was right. Moreover the targets were well selected. What other targets there were we will never know, unless we believe what we are told, which is not a good idea. There may have been other planes where the missions were aborted, and other trained teams ready as back ups, but this we are also unlikely to know.
The attack as planned required no material or resources other than trained pilots, flawless security (not just good), and inside and support help for weather, reservations, and control of personnel in the months and days preceding the operation. The amount of damage caused was extensive. The costs are probably between $20 billion and $50 billion not including any economic repercussions. The casualties will probably exceed 500, and the deaths are so frightening that there have been few estimates and the real figures may never be released. It would seem that the deaths will number in the five figures; that is, over 10,000 dead.
Aim of the attack?
The reaction has been rather predictable. I have not seen any interest in asking why the attack took place. Official comments suggest a lack of understanding. Secretary Rumsfeld said the purpose of terrorism is to create terror. Nonsense, the purpose of terrorism is to stimulate change in government or govern-ment policy and, absent that, to bring down the government.
Spokesman have repeated said this was an attack on New York, or an attack on America. No mention of the real target, U.S. govern-ment policy and practices. As Bin Laden himself has said, We declared jihad against the U.S. government because it is unjust, criminal and tyrannical. This attack was clearly an attack on U.S. financial and industrial practices, national policy (which is normally driven by the U.S. financial and industrial interests hence the attack on the World Trade Center) and on U.S. militarism, as placed on display in Bosnia, the Middle East, and else where.
Terrorists do not expect to succeed with one attack. They know that affecting change their objective requires a long-term commit-ment because those in political power are most unlikely to examine the events as a wake-up call to re-evaluate their own policies. Th us, while this operation was being implemented, which probably began with the careful selection of personnel at least two years ago, follow-on actions likely were also conceived and have already entered the planning and implementation phase.
That is my preliminary judgement based on the tremendous professionalism and operatio-nal sophistication demonstrated on that Tues-day. Terrorism has succeeded in the past, because the governments do not stop to understand what is happening and why. Thus, successions of events are designed to lead the country under attack into an overreaction mode that eventually leads the citizenry to conclude that the disturbance of their lives caused by actions of their own government have become worse that the actions of the terrorists.
The KGB father of terrorism
This is the direction we seem to be headed damn the torpedoes, full steam ahead. Or as President Bush said: We will make no distinction between the terrorists who committed these acts and those who harbor them. This is also pure nonsense. The U.S. has not been about to take on the most terrorist states of all in over thirty years and this is not about to change that is, Russia, China, North Korea, and Cuba. There are many possibly connected state sponsors for the Tuesday event, including Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, and most ominous, military intelligence in the Russian General Staff, the granddaddy of international terrorism. Does anyone think the U.S. will go after Russia?
There is no indication of anyone thinking within the decision-making apparatus. We also have articles in establishment newspapers for example, the Wall Street Journal today in the leading editorial calling for a Congressional declaration of war and the need to fight the war as a war; that is, fighting by war time rules. There is a similar tone in the Washington Post. Even more to the point, NATO is considering invoking Article 5 an attack on one is an attack on all, which means the U.S. may attack countries under the NATO umbrella and that the associated actions could greatly expand the war and open Europe to extreme terrorist attack as well.
The nature of follow-on attacks the various parties have planned should be expected to be as innovative and unexpected as the events on Tuesday. That was their key to success innovation and surprise. In considering the possibilities, the first conclusion is that many groups could become involved. The US can not fight several countries at once, and the more we take on, the more damaging the impact on our finance and industry. Each of the countries with a profound hatred for the U.S. could take their turn at outdoing each other in striking at the heart of the Great Satan.
Other possible terrorist attacks It would not take a costly or manpower commitment more than used on Tuesday to, for example, shut down 90 percent of U.S. electrical power by simply taking out the high-power oil-filled transformers at major power distribution centers. It used to be that a dozen hunting teams could do this. A major CW or BW attack is another option. Cuban CW specialists bragged in the past of having sufficient propositioned toxins to contaminate 30 percent of the U.S. water supply. A BW attack would also be attractive and something that any number of terrorist states are capable of executing on a national scale with minimal effort.
Targets that come to mind would include the White House, Congress, Intelligence facilities such as CIA, NSA, and satellite control stations. Certainly major banks, currency wire-transfer centers, stock markets around the world and leadership icons in countries that support the U.S. Or how about a co-ordinated covert BW attack on the U.S. economic strength: computers and software industry. Additionally, for several years the rumours have credited Osama bin Laden with at least three suitcase atomic bombs, which could also get someones attention. And what is to prevent someone like China from putting a major nuclear weapon on a third-world ship and exploding it in a major U.S. harbor New York would be an excellent target.
All of this is intended to illustrate the difficulties involved in defending against the type of minds that planned and organized the attack we experienced on Tuesday.
Consequences of a retaliatory war
Hopefully, none of the above will materialize. However, it strikes me as unlikely that those responsible for Tuesdays attack are going to stop with just that attack unless those responsible are caught very quickly or otherwise convinced to change their ways. Neither of these seem likely, but maybe we will get lucky or very aggressive. Clearly, there is immense pressure on the U.S. intelligence community and they appear to be serious they say they have identified all the terrorists on the planes and the flight training they received in Florida. That is the published word. The rumours go further and indicate that this terrorist network was only a small part of a much larger network, involving several countries. There is a rumour that the Taliban have said they have Osama bin Laden in custody and might consider releasing him to the U.S. if there is proof that he was responsible. There is concern that other nations identified include Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya and that all may have been told they would be devastated beyond recognition if all those responsible are not turned over. There is concern that if bin Laden is not turned over that there will be massive strikes against all those countries with the intent of destroying the leadership, military, terrorist training camps, weapons facilities and if this is the case, it would make the Gulf War look in retrospect like a childrens birthday party. I do not know whether this is true or credible or not, but there is nothing about it that is unbelievable and it would certainly be in line with a NATO article 5 and Congressional declaration of war.
Where this ends up is anyones guess, especially insofar as the policy of silence respecting the crimes of Communism is still the policy of the West and the talented hand of the GRU is an ever-present possibility. Incidentally, to put the events in perspective, the financial cost of drug trafficking and organized crime each year is far more serious than the devastation of the world trade center buildings, the annual fatalities are probably comparable, and the casualties and personal hurt go way beyond the casualties and hurt associated with the crashes, yet no one has suggested we are in a drug war or a war with organized crime! The raising of critical questions is what can be done in the present situation.
Dr Joseph D. Douglass jr.
Director, Redwood Institute, Washington D.C., former U.S. Government Adviser on National Security (Soviet intelligence, biological and chemical warfare), expert on disarmament, author and publicist.
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