After the Russian Elections

Back to the Soviet Empire?

by Professor Werner Gumpel, Munich

Vladimir Putin can rejoice: his desire to transform Russia into a two party system is practically a reality now in the wake of the December 7 elections. But there's even more: the political party 'Unified Russia,' which was brought into existence by the Kremlin, received over 37 percent of the vote, while at the same time the Communists, the second most powerful party in Russia and the only opposition party, finished a distant second with 12.7 percent of the vote. Their slice of the political pie was only a little bit higher than the nationalist Liberal Democrats under Vladimir Shirinovsky (11.8 percent). The 'Rodina' or Homeland party finished fourth with 9 percent of the vote. As a result the political parties which have sworn allegiance to Putin have consolidated control over 58 percent of the seats in the Duma. The liberal powers are stuck out in the cold.

The results of the election are not uncontested. Communist party boss Sjuganov has complained about voter fraud, and in various localities there were even demonstrations against the official results. One of the most spectacular was the demonstration in the Kalmuk capital of Eliste, where around 800 people demonstrated their displeasure for 24 hours in front of the state capitol.

There are without doubt reasons to be unhappy with how the elections were conducted. Newspapers, television stations and journalists that were critical of Putin were marginalized. The oligarch Chodorovsky, who had contributed heavily to both the Liberal 'Jabloko' or Apple Party as well as the communists as part of his ambitious plan to become president (the presidential elections take place in March 2004) was thrown into jail. Parties which took a critical view of the incumbents in the Kremlin were subjected to a campaign of demonziaton and defamation, with the usual results. The communists suffered the most from this campaign.

Putin has approached his true aim: he vision is a state in which there is only one party in power and it is led by him. There were rumors that the election laws should be changed in a way that would enable him to be elected as president for a third term.

Putin's political goal is a centrally organized powerful state. In order to achieve this he must eradicate the first tendrils of democracy, which is precisely what happened in this election. Putin's goal is the resurrection of a new state much like the former Soviet Union, under the leadership of Russia, a state which will once again be able to exert its power in world politics. The Russian president is of one mind with the evidently widespread feeling of frustration among the Russian people. An opinion poll conducted in November showed hat 64 percent of the Russian people regret the fall of the Soviet Union, and that only 16 percent consider its fall a good thing. Many Russians think back nostalgically to the days of the Soviet Union. Public order was secure (at least on the surface) and jobs were secure too, even if the price one paid for that order was lower productivity leading eventually to an erosion of economic substance and ultimately economic collapse.

Putin understands how to manipulate public opinion in other areas as well, something which he put into practice during the elections. He moved against the oligarchs. He promised a decisive offensive against the all but universal corruption and criminality and against arrogant bureaucrats. And that is what people wanted to hear. In this regard the results of the election are probably not that distant from what the people wanted.

How Putin puts his political power into effect is an open question at this point. Russian economic experts are of the opinion that his measures will slow reforms, something that could affect further privatization efforts, even though Putin has come out publicly for their continuation. With the new Duma, Putin now has the power to do as he sees fit, since all of the important government positions are in the hands of his vassals.

The large majority of nationalists in the Russian parliament facilitates a return to a refurbished Russian empire. The current conflict in Georgia offers a good opportunity for this. Following the example of the all of the world's great empires, Putin is now playing Georgia's various ethnic groups off against each other. Without informing the Georgian government (to whom the Adsharian autonomous region belongs), Putin abolished the Visa requirement for visitors from this region. A highly unusual move, whose goal is the secession of this region from Georgia. Russia has one of its largest military bases in this region. Putin invited the leaders of the three Georgian separatist autonomous regions (along with the still hesitant Adsharian, that includes Abchasia and South Ossetia) to Moscow for talks on further initiatives against the Georgian government and its pro-American president. Two of these autonomous regions have already applied for membership in the Russian federation. According to the newspaper Isvestia, Moscow is suggesting that Abchasia and South Ossetia become a protectorate of Moscow. That would, of course, mean the demise of Georgia as a state, and that would mean that Vladimir Putin would be one step closer to the resurrection of the Soviet empire. That would also mean a defeat for American ambitions in the Caucasian region. Even now the Russian press is reporting that a 'cold war' is already under way in Georgia between America and Russia. The fact that Russia has built new military bases in Kazakhstan and Kirgistan, where America also has bases, means that the Russians are reasserting their claims over the lands of the former Soviet Union. This situation will only get worse following the results of the December 7 elections. The foreign and domestic political consequences of that Duma election are going to be a lot more far-reaching than anyone has foreseen.