Germany, a servant or “Kapo”* of the Empire?

Will the KLA’s organ-trafficking as well serve as a model?

Lieutenant strategy copied from the Britains?
As it did during World War II, Britain recognized U.S. economic and military primacy, and it recognized it no longer could retain its empire. As an alternative, the British aligned themselves with the U.S.-dominated alliance system and the postwar financial arrangements lumped together under the Bretton Woods system. The British, however, added a dimension to this. Unable to match the United States militarily, they outstripped other American allies both in the quantity of their military resources and in their willingness to use them at the behest of the Americans.
We might call this the “lieutenant strategy.” Britain could not be America’s equal. However, it could in effect be America›s lieutenant, wielding a military force that outstripped in number – and technical sophistication – the forces deployed by other European countries.
Excerpt from George Friedman “Britain’s strategy“

Berlin is starting preparations for the transformation of Syria into a liberal market economy. Late last week, a multi-national “Working Group” under German presidency started its work; after the overthrow of the Assad regime it will introduce immediate economic measures, including the coordination of aid projects, but will also implement economic reforms. Together with the United Arab Emirates, the German government will establish a “secretariat”. It will be run by a German with Afghanistan experience. Berlin had already before promoted the denationalization of the Syrian economy in cooperation with the Assad regime; the onset of liberalization, however, ruined parts of the population, which contributed to an uprising against the regime. Initial designs for a new Syrian economy have already been presented in Berlin. Their author is an activist of the Syrian National Council (SNC), which is sharply criticized by numerous oppositionists, because the Muslim Brotherhood holds a strong position in the Council. Leading SNC-positions are held by Syrian politicians who are in exile in Washington, who are demanding Western intervention à la Kosovo and name the KLA as a model for the Syrian opposition.

Self-empowered

Under German co-chairmanship a multinational “working group” met late last week in Abu Dhabi for the first time to initiate immediate economic measures for the period after the fall of the Assad regime. The “Working Group on Economic Recovery and Development of the Friends of the Syrian People” was implemented on 1 April in Istanbul by the “Group of Friends of the Syrian people”. This is an alliance of Western and pro-Western states that have fought in the Syrian civil war on the side of the opposition and cooperated mainly with the Syrian National Council (SNC), an exile organization. The “Group of Friends of the Syrian People” does is in no way legitimized by the UN Security Council. The same applies to their “working group” for Syria’s economic reconstruction, which will serve as a “central forum” for the necessary economic measures – self-empowered.¹

Germany is in charge

The German diplomat Clemens von Goetze, who, along with a colleague from the United Arab Emirates led the meeting late last week, said that the “Working Group” was not only concerned with immediate emergency aid after the fall of the regime. Rather, it was now “a good time now to start for a long-term perspective of the country”.² Their model is the Marshall Plan, which the United States used in Europe after the Second World War to establish the material basis for the development of the Western alliance. The “Working Group” has set up several sub-groups, each devoted to special issues. In the international division of labor upon which the Member States have now agreed formally, Germany’s leading role is concerned with “economic policy and reform”. It explicitly includes “long-term strategies”³, which should serve the transition of Syria, “from a centrally planned economy to a market economy”, reports say. The “Working Group” plans to establish a secretariat, for which Germany and the United Arab Emirates provide € 600 000 each. It will be headed by the German Gunnar Wälzholz. Wälzholz most recently headed the branch of the German Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW – reconstruction credit institute) in Afghanistan.

Carrots and sticks

As a participant of last week’s meeting confirmed, the measures which are now driven forth under German leadership, also include short-term goals. The aim is to attract those silent sectors in Syria by economic projects, “which did not completely join or which are still hesitant to support the revolt”.⁴ Thus, they form a kind of counterpart to the economic sanctions which – however not by incentives, but by pressure – should make entrepreneurs who are loyal to the regime change their minds. Accordingly, the “Working Group” explains that the sanctions could be lifted “as soon as their objectives have been achieved” – i.e. after Assad’s fall, which would be enhanced by a changeover of interested business circles.⁵

The consequences of liberalization

The denationalization of the Syrian economy, which is the “Working Group”’s doing has been promoted by Berlin since several years – for a long time in close cooperation with the Assad regime. The German development agency GTZ (now GIC – German Society for International Cooperation) launched a specific program in 2006, entitled “Supporting economic reform in Syria”. The explanation was that in 2000 that the Syrian government had embarked on “a process of transformation towards a social market economy”; although “the participating institutions […] were lacking the needed capacities and knowledge”, which is why GTZ was supporting them.⁶ They also said that “the expected impact on income and employment will improve the lives of the Syrian population” – an announcement that simply did not become reality. Quite the contrary happened: the opening of the Syrian market had a great “adverse impact” on the local crafts, the International Crisis Group confirmed last year. This was, for example, true for Duma, a suburb of Damascus, where many craftsmen live; due to liberalization they were on the verge of ruin, and had therefore quit their loyalty to the government.⁷ In fact Duma is now regarded as a protest stronghold and had even been completely controlled by insurgents for a short time in January.

Visions

The “National Economic Vision”, presented last week to the German-led “Working Group” in Abu Dhabi by the head of the “Economic Bureau” of the SNC, Usama al Qadi, wrote that the liberalization will raise the standard of living only “in the long run”. First, one must create reliable framework conditions for foreign investments, increase the “productivity” of Syrian workers, rush the settlement of industries, reform the banking sector and seek new business partners in particular abroad. The “Marshall Syrian Recovery Plan”, which should be implemented as quickly as possible, would be able to attract direct investment from the West to a greater degree. As for the implementation, the German-led “secretariat” of the “Working Group” would assist as soon as Assad was overthrown and his regime in Damascus was replaced.

Just like back then in Kosovo

The SNC, cooperating closely on the Syrian side with the West in the context of the “Working Group” and whose staff offers guidance for future activities, is very controversely disputed among oppositionists in Syria. It is dominated by members of the Muslim Brotherhood, whose strong position within the SNC meets with vehement protest among secular-oriented opponents of the regime. In addition, it evokes a lot of anger among large parts of the Syrian opposition that leading SNC members openly back a military intervention by the West. The National Coordination Committee (NCC), an alliance of opposition organizations in Syria which the West is not particularly sensitive to, has however argued decidedly against Western military operations. Radwan Ziadeh, “Director of Foreign Relations” of the SNC and SNC economic expert Osama al Qadi, actively working for the Washington-based Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies, have already advocated operations à la Kosovo several times. “Kosovo shows how the West can intervene in Syria”, Ziadeh, who had been a guest of the Berlin Foreign Office in July 2011, told the “Financial Times” in February.⁸ Shortly afterwards he attributed the same role as Kosovo’s KLA to the militia of the Free Syrian Army.⁹ Only recently Syrian oppositionists were in Kosovo in order to obtain exact information about the actions of the KLA in 1999 (German-foreign-policy.com reported10). Using the same metaphor, the “massacre of Houla” could obtain the same meaning as the “Racak massacre” early 1999. Soon after the “Racak massacre” there were indications, however, that it had been faked in order to create a casus belli. They were never reliably refuted; nevertheless, nothing stood in the way of NATO’s military intervention.•

^{*prisoner of a concentration camp in charge of a fatigue detail}

^{Source: http://www.german-foreign-policy.com, 30. 05.2012)}

^{1 Chairman’s Conclusions. Second Conference of The Group of Friends of the Syrian people, Istanbul,1.4.2012
2 Donors Mull Marshall Plan for Post-Conflict Syria; www.naharnet.com 25.5.2012
3 Assad verbreitet Zuversicht; www.faz.net 05/24/2012
4 Donors Mull Marshall Plan for Post-Conflict Syria; www.naharnet.com 25.5.2012
5 Chairmen’s Conclusions of the International Meeting of the Working Group on Economic Recovery and Development of the Group of Friends of the Syrian People, Abu Dhabi, 24.5.2012
6 Supporting economic reform in Syria; http://www.gtz.de/en/weltweit/maghreb-naher-osten/syrien/31545.htm
7 Popular Protest in North Africa and the Middle East (VI): The Syrian People’s Revolution, Slow Motion, International Crisis Group Middle East/North Africa Report No. 108, 6.7.2011
8 Kosovo shows how the West can intervene in Syria; www.ft.com 14.2.2012
9 Radwan Ziadeh: Have We Learned Nothing From the Nineties? Syria is the Balkans All Over Again; www.tnr.com, 22.3.2012
10 cf With the UN toward escalation Source: http://www.german-foreign-policy.com/en/fulltext/58303 of 2012/05/16}